6. Better Explanations Equals More Progress

What if reality was a person who needed new clothes? The people of Earth are given the job of clothing reality, though there are rules to this game. You have no contact with reality and no way to see what it looks like. How would you dress reality? One man says, “I bet reality is a fashion model so send her a dress.” So a dress was sent but it was rejected without a reason why. Another person tries, “Send reality some Chanel.” A box of Chanel was sent but it was rejected without a reason why.

A British physicist tries to tackle this problem. He starts by sending reality some one-size-fits-all stretchy socks. It also gets rejected but this made him excited. He then theorized that reality was not going to do anything that would require sneakers, men's dress shoes, or boots. He also theorized that reality would have taken the socks if needed. Preferences didn't matter as much for socks.

Amazed by what seemed like the only progress anyone had ever made, the people rejoiced. A reporter asked the physicist what the secret to his success was and he said, “The previous attempts just like mine were all guesses. I just backed my guess up with the explanation that people wear either socks and shoes or just shoes or are barefoot.” “It looks like you know something important about explanations,” said the reporter. “You see, the best explanations are full of details and every detail plays an important role just like people wear socks with sneakers. That is an important detail. The details all have to fit together. Now bad explanations don't have lots of details or the details may be vague. For instance, if reality were a fashion model, we should send reality a dress. While it could be true the explanation does not tell us for instance what size dress fits reality and why.” “Wow, that is remarkable, good explanations are the key to progress,” concluded the reporter. “Yes, indeed they are, “ said the physicist.