22. It's All Guesses

Consider the following set of statements:

1. A cat was there because I believe it was
2. A cat was there because I heard it
3. A cat was there because I saw it
4. A cat was there because I found pawprints
5. A cat was there because a priest told me
6. A cat was there because a dog barked

Which statement sounds more true?

Statement 3? Surely, since you saw it and you are not lying it was there? 
But then, maybe statement 4? Paw prints are undeniable! Right?
I also trust my priest. He would never lie to me.

Take a breath and let’s pause from trying to solve this problem. I have a confession to make. I tricked you with this exercise and I am sorry. You will do your very best, and of this I am sure, but you will fail because I tricked you. I used misdirection. I made you look for something that is very hard to find - truth. In the time that you spent looking for the very hard-to-find thing you may have missed several other things. What if you broaden your view? What if you put my question to the side, just for a minute, and looked at the statements again? I wonder what you may notice.

Think about the statements again. Each statement offers a different kind of “evidence” for the presence of a cat. Initially, you might focus on which type of “evidence” or reason seems most reliable. You can compare sensory experiences to indirect signs or third-party testimony. However, the key lies not in determining which statement is truer but in understanding the nature of evidence and perception itself. None of those statements are good explanations as to why a cat was or was not there. Maybe we need to reconsider our approach to discerning truth. Each statement, from seeing and hearing to relying on the word of another or interpreting signs like paw prints or a dog’s reaction, shows the different ways we perceive and validate reality, but are these methods correct? This isn't just about finding a cat. It is about examining the quality of explanations from the information available to us. We want good explanations because it is our only way to judge what is really happening.